Forecasters are essential users of information – of observations, model output, etc. – that they access and interrogate to make decisions about issuing high-impact forecasts and warnings and to communicate those products.

We need to partner with forecasters to study and understand these risk assessment and decision processes – which in turn can better guide development of new guidance/tools for them.

A research team under the leadership of Dr Julie Demuth, National Centre for Atmospheric Research, has developed a social science experiment under the umbrella of the WWRP Paris 2024 RDP to explore these issues further in the context of forecasting for high stakes events.