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Publication List 2019

Feb 07,2021

Aijaz, S., Kepert, J.D., Ye, H., Huang, Z. and Hawksford, A., 2019. Bias Correction of Tropical Cyclone Parameters in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System in Australia. Monthly Weather Review, 147(11), pp.4261-4285.

Bachmann, K., Christian Keil, Martin Weissmann, 2019, Impact of radar data assimilation and orography on predictability of deep convection, Quart J Roy Met S, 117-130.

Bachmann, K., C. Keil, G. Craig, M. Weissmann, and C. A. Welzbacher,2019: Predictability of Deep Convection in Idealized and Operational Forecasts: Effects of Radar Data Assimilation, Orography and Synoptic Weather Regime, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 63–81, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0045.1.

Baran, S., and S. Lerch: Combining predictive distributions for the statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts, Int. J. Forecast.34, 477-496, doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.01.005.

Barrett, A., C. Wellmann, A. Seifert, C. Hoose, B. Vogel, and M.  Kunz, 2019: One Step at a Time: How Model Time Step Significantly Affects Convection‐Permitting Simulations, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11(3), 641-658, doi: 10.1029/2018MS001418.

Baumgart, M., Michael Riemer, 2019, Processes governing the amplification of ensemble spread in a medium‐range forecast with large forecast uncertainty, QJ, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3617.

Baumgart, M., P. Ghinassi, V. Wirth, T. Selz, G.C. Craig, and M. Riemer, 2019: Quantitative View on the Processes Governing the Upscale Error Growth up to the Planetary Scale Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 1713–1731, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0292.1.

Bermann, J., and R. Torn, 2019: The Impact of Initial Condition and Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Uncertainty on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide in an ECWMF Case Study, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 4071-4089, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0333.1.

Campbell, S.L., Fox-Hughes, P.D., Jones, P.J., Remenyi, T.A., Chappell, K., White, C.J. and Johnston, F.H., 2019. Evaluating the risk of epidemic thunderstorm asthma: lessons from Australia. International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(5), p.837.

Catto, J. L. and S. Raveh-Rubin, 2019, Climatology and dynamics of the link between dry intrusions and cold fronts during winter. Part I: global climatology, Climate Dynamics, 53, 1873–1892.

Craig, G. C., and T. Selz: Mesoscale dynamical regimes in the midlatitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 410-417, doi:10.1002/2017GL076174.

Doyle, E.E.H., D.M.Johnston, R.Smith and D. Paton, 2019, Communciating model uncertainty for natural hazards: a qualitative systematic thematic review. Int J Disaster Risk Reduction, 33, 449-476. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.10.023.

Doyle, E. E. H., Johnston, D. M., Smith, R., & Paton, D. (2019). Communicating model uncertainty for natural hazards: A qualitative systematic thematic review. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 33, 449-476. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.10.023.

Euler, C., M. Riemer, T. Kremer, and E. Schömer, 2019: Lagrangian Description of Air Masses Associated with Latent Heat Release in Tropical Storm Karl (2016) during Extratropical Transition. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 2657–2676, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0422.1.

Eisenstein, L., F. Pantillon, and P. Knippertz, 2019: Dynamics of sting‐jet storm "Egon" over continental Europe: impact of surface properties and model resolution, Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., doi:  10.1002/qj.3666.

Fakhruddin, B., Bostrom, A., Cui, P., Yu, L., Zou, Q., Sillmann, J., Johnston, D., Jimenez, V., Ying, E., Chan,Y., Chan, G.K.W., Hung, H., Huang, Z., Wong, C.K.P., Lim, C.K.P., Anuar T., Komoo J.I.K., Schueller, L.,Thiebes, B., Booth, L., Abad, J., Baills, A., Fleming, K., Zuccaro, G., Lian, F., Lucy Jones, L., Han, Q., Shaw, R. and S. Lwasa, 2019, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR). Contributing Paper to the 2019 edition of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2019). https://www.preventionweb.net/files/65873_f301fahkruddinintegratedresearchond.pdf.

Fundel, V. J., Fleischhut, N., Herzog, S. M., Göber, M. and R. Hagedorn, 2019, Promoting the use of probabilistic weather forecasts through a dialogue between scientists, developers, and end-users. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society. doi.org/10.1002/qj.3482.

Golding, B., Mittermaier, M., Ross, C., Ebert, B., Panchuk, S., Scolobig, A. and D. Johnston, 2019, A Value Chain Approach to Optimising Early Warning Systems. Contributing Paper to the 2019 edition of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2019).  https://www.preventionweb.net/files/65828_f212goldingetalvaluechain.pdf

Golding,B., T. Waite and V. Murray, 2019, Lessons from Cases of Coastal Risk Governance in the UK. In Facing Hydro-meteorological Extreme Events: A Governance Issue. Eds. Isabelle La Jeunesse, Corinne Larrue. Wiley. 508pp. DOI:10.1002/9781119383567.

Grazzini, F., Craig G.C., Keil C., Antolini G., and Pavan V, 2019:  Extreme precipitation events over Northern Italy. Part (I): a systematic classification with machine learning techniques, Q. J.  Royal Meteorol. Soc., 1–17, doi: 10.1002/qj.3635.

Hirt, M., S. Rasp, U. Blahak, and G.C. Craig, 2019: Stochastic parameterization of processes leading to convection initiation in kilometre-scale models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 0, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0060.1.

Hu, J., N. Yussouf, D. Turner, T. Jones and X. Wang, 2019: Impact of Ground-based Remote Sensing Boundary Layer Observations on Short-term Probabilistic Forecasts of a Tornadic Supercell Event, Wea. Forecasting, 34, 1453–1476 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0200.1.

Huo, Z., and Z. Ruan, 2019. Statistical Characteristics of Raindrop Size Distribution in South China based on the Vertical structure Derived from VPR-CFMCW. Atmospheric Research, Under review.

Jones, T. A., P. S. Skinner, N. Yussouf, K. Knopfmeier, A. E. Reinhart, and D. C. Dowell, 2019: Forecasting high-impact weather in landfalling tropical cyclones using a Warn-on-Forecast system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,100, 1405-1417, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0203.1.

Jordan, A., F. Krüger, and S. Lerch, 2019: Evaluating probabilistic forecasts with scoring Rules, J. Stat. Softw., 90, 1-37, doi: 10.18637/jss.v090.i12. (Link to online article).

Keat, W.J., T. H. M. Stein, E. Phaduli, S. Landman. E. Becker, M.-J. M. Bopape, K. E. Hanley, H. W. Lean and S. Webster, 2019, Convection initiation and storm life cycles in convection-permitting simulations of the Met Office Unified Model over South Africa. Quart J Roy Meteorol S, 145, 1323-1336. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3487.

Kautz, L.-A., Polichtchouk, I., Birner, T., Garny, H., Pinto, J. G.,2019: Enhanced extended‐range predictability of the 2018 late‐winter Eurasian cold spell due to the stratosphere, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor.  Soc., 146, 1040-1055, doi:10.1002/qj.3724.

Keil,C., F. Baur, K. Bachmann, S. Rasp, L. Schneider, C. Barthlott, 2019, Relative contribution of soil moisture, boundary‐layer and microphysical perturbations on convective predictability in different weather regimes, QJ, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3607.

Keller, J. H., C. M. Grams, M. Riemer, H. M. Archambault, L. Bosart, J. D. Doyle, J. L. Evans, T. J. Galarneau, K. Griffin, P. A. Harr, N. Kitabatake, R. McTaggart-Cowan, F. Pantillon, J. F. Quinting, C. A. Reynolds, E. A. Ritchie, R. D. Torn, and F. F. Zhang, 2019, The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones Part II: Interaction with the midlatitude flow, downstream impacts, and implications for predictability. Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 1077-1106, DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-17-0329.1.

Kern, M., T. Hewson, F. Sadlo, R. Westermann and M. Rautenhaus: 2019, Robust detection and visualization of jet-stream core lines in atmospheric flow, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, doi: 10.1109/TVCG.2017.2743989. (Link to online article).

Kern M., T. Hewson, A. Schäfler, R. Westermann, and M. Rautenhaus, 2019, Interactive 3D Visual Analysis of Atmospheric Fronts, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 25, 1080–1090.

Kumpf, A., M. Rautenhaus, M. Riemer, and R. Westermann, 2019, Visual Analysis of the Temporal Evolution of Ensemble Forecast Sensitivities, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 25, 98-108.

Larter P., Grek-Martin J., and Silver A. (2019).  Does time heal all wounds?  Restoring place attachment in Halifax’s Point Pleasant Park after Hurricane Juan.  The Canadian Geographer 63: 494-506. 

Lawson, J. R., J. S. Kain, N. Yussouf, D. C. Dowell, D. M. Wheatley, K. H. Knopfmeier and T. A. Jones, 2018: Advancing from Convection-allowing NWP to Warn-on-Forecast: Evidence of progress. Wea. Forecasting, 33, 599-607, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0145.1.

Lean, H. W., J. F. Barlow and C. H. Halios, 2019, The impact of spin-up and resolution on the representation of a clear convective boundary layer over London in order 100m grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model. Quart J Roy Meteorol S, 145,1674-1689. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3519.

Lewis H.W., Castillo Sanchez JM, Arnold A, Fallmann J, Saulter A, Graham J, Bush M, Siddorn J, Palmer T, Lock A, Edwards J, Bricheno L, Martínez-de la Torre A and J. Clark, 2019, The UKC3 regional coupled environmental prediction system. Geoscientific Model Development. 12 (6). 2357-2400. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2357-2019.

Lewis HW, Castillo Sanchez JM, Siddorn J, King RR, Tonani M, Saulter A, Sykes P, Pequignet A-C, Weedon GP, Palmer T, Staneva J and L. Bricheno 2019, Can wave coupling improve operational regional ocean forecasts for the north-west European Shelf? Ocean Science. 15. 669-690. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-669-2019.

Lewis, H.W., Siddorn J, Castillo Sanchez JM, Petch J, Edwards JM and T. Smyth, 2019, Evaluating the impact of atmospheric forcing and air–sea coupling on near-coastal regional ocean prediction. Ocean Science. 15. 761-778. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-761-2019.

Li, Z., Y. Luo and Y. Chen, 2019, Statistical Characteristics of Presummer Rainfall over South China and Associated Synoptic Conditions. JMSJ, under review.

Liu, X.T., H. Huang, Y. Luo, Q. Wan, and coauthors, 2019, Statistical Characteristics of Raindrop Size Distributions and disdromter-based polarimetric radar QPE during SCMREX. J. Appl. Meteor. Clim., Under review.

Maier-Gerber, M., M. Riemer, A. H. Fink, P. Knippertz, E. Di Muzio, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2019, Tropical Transition of Hurricane Chris (2012) over the North Atlantic Ocean: A Multi-Scale Investigation of Predictability. DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-18-0188.1.

Migliorini, S. and Brett Candy, 2019, All-sky satellite data assimilation of microwave temperature sounding channels at the Met Office. Quart J Roy Met S. 867-883.

Di Muzio, E., M. Riemer, A. H. M. Fink, and M. Maier-Gerber, 2019, Assessing the predictability of Medicanes in ECMWF ensemble forecasts using an object-based approach, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 1202-1217.

Pantillon, F., Adler B., Corsmeier U., Knippertz P., Wieser A., and Hansen A., 2019: Formation of Wind Gusts in an Extratropical Cyclone in the Light of Doppler Lidar Observations and Large-Eddy Simulations, Mon. Weather Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-19-0241.1. (Link to online article)

Pinto J.G., Pantillon F., Ludwig P., Déroche M.S., Leoncini G., Raible C.C., Shaffrey L.C., Stephenson D.B., 2019: From Atmospheric Dynamics to Insurance Losses – an Interdisciplinary Workshop on European Windstorms, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0026.1.

Piper, D., M. Kunz, J.T. Allen and S. Mohr, 2019: Investigation of the temporal variability of thunderstorms in Central and Western Europe and the relation to large‐scale flow and teleconnection patterns. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 145, 3644-3666. doi:10.1002/qj.3647.

Raveh-Rubin, S. and J.L. Catto, 2019, Climatology and dynamics of the link between dry intrusions and cold fronts during winter, Part II: Front-centred perspective. Climate Dynamics, 53, 1893–1909.

Riboldi, J., C.M. Grams, M. Riemer, and H.M. Archambault, 2019: A Phase Locking Perspective on Rossby Wave Amplification and Atmospheric Blocking Downstream of Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 567–589, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0271.1.

Schindler, M., M. Weissmann, A. Schäfler, and G. Radnoti, 2019: The impact of dropsonde and extra radiosonde observations during NAWDEX in autumn 2016. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0126.1.

Schlüter, A., A. H. Fink, P. Knippertz, and P. Vogel, 2019: A systematic comparison of tropical waves over northern Africa. Part I:  Influence on rainfall, J. Clim., 32, 1501-1523, doi:  10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0173.1.

Schlüter, A., A. H. Fink, and P. Knippertz, 2019: A systematic comparison of tropical waves over northern Africa. Part II: Dynamics and thermodynamics, J. Clim., 32, 2605–2625, doi:  10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0651.1.

Schneider, L., C. Barthlott, C. Hoose, and A. I. Barrett, 2019:  Relative impact of aerosol, soil moisture, and orography perturbations on deep convection, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12343–12359, doi:10.5194/acp-19-12343-2019.

Selz, T., 2019: Estimating the Intrinsic Limit of Predictability Using a Stochastic Convection Scheme. J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 757–765, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0373.1.

Selz, T., L. Bierdel, and G.C. Craig, 2019: Estimation of the Variability of Mesoscale Energy Spectra with Three Years of COSMO-DE Analyses. J. Atmos. Sci., 76, 627–637, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0155.1.

Silver A. and Andrey J. (2019). Public attention to extreme weather: sense-making on social media.  Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 27: 346-358.

Silver A. (2019).  Public attention to risks, hazards, and disasters: a retrospective literature review and proposed conceptual model.  Risk, Hazards, and Crisis in Public Policy 10: 294-310. 

Snook, N., F. Kong, K. A. Brewster, M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, T. A. Supinie, S. Perfator and B. Albright, 2019, Evaluation 0f convection-permitting precipitation forecast products using WRF, NMMR & FV3 for the 2016-7 NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed flash flood and intense rainfall experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev. 147, 781-804. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0155.1.

Soderholm, J.S., Turner, K.I., Brook, J.P., Wedd, T. and Callaghan, J., 2019. High-impact thunderstorms of the Brisbane metropolitan area. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 69(1), pp.239-251.

Stein, T. H. M., W. Keat, R. I. Maidment, S. Landman, E. Becker, D. F. A. Boyd, A. Bodas-Salcedo, G. Pankeiwicz, S. Webster, 2019, An Evaluation of Clouds and Precipitation in Convection-Permitting Forecasts for South Africa, Wea & Forecast, 34, 233-254.

Su, C.H., Eizenberg, N., Steinle, P., Jakob, D., Fox-Hughes, P., White, C.J., Rennie, S., Franklin, C., Dharssi, I. and Zhu, H., 2019. BARRA v1. 0: the Bureau of Meteorology atmospheric high-resolution regional reanalysis for Australia. Geoscientific Model Development, 12(5), pp.2049-2068.

Tang, X, J. Sun, and Y. Zhang, 2019: Constraining the large-scale analysis of a regional rapid-update-cycle system for short-term convective precipitation forecasting,  J. Geophys. Res.., 124, 6949-6945, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030190  .

Taylor, A. L., Kause, A., Summers, B., & Harrowsmith, M., 2019. Preparing for Doris: Exploring public responses to impact-based weather warnings in the UK. Weather, Climate, and Society, 11, 713-729. DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0132.1.

Terrasson, A., McCarthy, N., Dowdy, A., Richter, H., McGowan, H. and Guyot, A., 2019. Weather radar insights into the turbulent dynamics of a wildfire‐triggered supercell thunderstorm. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(15), pp.8645-8658.

Terti, G., I. Ruin, J.J. Gourley, P. Kirstetter, Z. Flamig, J. Blanchet, A. Arthur, and S. Anquetin, 2019. Toward probabilistic prediction of flash flood human impacts, Risk Analysis, 39(1):140-161.

Varghese, B.M., Barnett, A.G., Hansen, A.L., Bi, P., Nairn, J., Rowett, S., Nitschke, M., Hanson-Easey, S., Heyworth, J.S., Sim, M.R. and Pisaniello, D.L., 2019. Characterising the impact of heatwaves on work-related injuries and illnesses in three Australian cities using a standard heatwave definition-Excess Heat Factor (EHF). Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology, 29(6), pp.821-830.

Varghese, B.M., Hansen, A., Nitschke, M., Nairn, J., Hanson-Easey, S., Bi, P. and Pisaniello, D., 2019. Heatwave and work-related injuries and illnesses in Adelaide, Australia: a case-crossover analysis using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) as a universal heatwave index. International archives of occupational and environmental health, 92(2), pp.263-272.

Ward, P., V. Blauhut, N. Bloemendaal, J. E. Daniell, M.C. de Ruiter, M. Duncan, R. Emberson, S.F. Jenkins, D. Kirschbaum, M. Kunz, S. Mohr, S. Muis, G.A. Riddell, A. Schäfer, T. Stanley, T.I.E. Veldkamp and H. C. Winsemius, 2019: Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096. doi:10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020.

Weyrich P., A. Scolobig and A. Patt, 2019, Impacts of inconsistent weather warnings on public behaviour, in World Bank, Weathering the Change: How to Improve Hydromet Services in Developing Countries? Washington, DC: World Bank. https://www.gfdrr.org/en/publication/weathering-change-how-improve-hydromet-services-developing-countries.

Weyrich P., A. Scolobig and A. Patt, 2019, Dealing with inconsistent weather warnings: Effects on warning quality and intended actions, Meteorological Applications, 26: 569-583. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/met.1785.

Wu, M., and Y. Luo, 2019. Observed Link of Extreme Hourly Precipitation Changes to Urbanization over Coastal South China. JAMC, Under review.

Yussouf, N. and K. H. Knopfmeier, 2019: Application of Warn-on-Forecast System for Flash-Flood Producing Heavy Convective Rainfall Events, Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1002/qj.3568.

Zhang, Q., L. Li, E. Ebert, B. Golding, D. Johnston, B. Mills, S. Panchuk, S. Potter, M. Riemer, J. Sun, A. Taylor, S. Jones, P. Ruti and J. Keller, 2019, Increasing the Value of Weather-Related Warnings”. Science Bulletin, 64, 647-649, ISSN 2095-9273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.04.003.

Zschenderlein, PFink, AHPfahl, SWernli, HProcesses determining heat waves across different European climatesQ J R Meteorol Soc 20191452973‐ 2989.https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3599

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